Uncertainty is not a failure of planning

Travel contains uncertainty by design:

  • schedules move
  • policies vary
  • environments change

The goal is to build a plan that can absorb variance.

A useful distinction

Separate:

  • what must be true (constraints)
  • what is nice to have (preferences)
  • what is unknown (variables)

What “good planning” looks like

Good planning reduces:

  • surprise cost
  • surprise time loss
  • decision fatigue

It does not eliminate change.